US Open: Aryna Sabalenka favourite, but Swiatek, Gauff could rewrite predictions

As the 2025 US Open looms, Aryna Sabalenka steps onto the court as the clear favourite to defend her crown. Yet with the spotlight on her, the pressure of being a reigning champion is immense. History looms large: no woman has successfully defended the US Open title since Serena Williams in 2014.

Sabalenka’s recent runs to the finals at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros underscore her firepower, but expectations weigh heavily.

The path ahead is far from guaranteed. Five-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek and 2023 US Open winner Coco Gauff are poised to challenge every assumption. Jessica Pegula, last year’s finalist, remains dangerous despite an uneven season, while rising star Mirra Andreeva, fresh off a win against Sabalenka at Indian Wells, introduces a thrilling wildcard.

In this fiercely competitive draw, the ultimate question stands: can Sabalenka defy history and the pressure to claim back-to-back US Open glory, or will a new champion seize the moment?

Swiatek rising back to the top

Swiatek storms into the US Open with renewed fire and unstoppable momentum, determined to reclaim the title she last lifted in 2022. After a rocky start to the season, she has roared back to elite form, punctuated by a commanding triumph at Wimbledon and a relentless title run in Cincinnati.

Once teetering on the edge of the top 10 at No. 8, these victories have propelled her to No. 2 in the WTA rankings, signaling a full-scale resurgence.

Undaunted by past controversies, Swiatek has showcased unwavering resilience and steely composure on court. Her recent straight-sets demolition of Jasmine Paolini in Cincinnati highlighted her tactical brilliance and mental toughness.

Beyond singles, her run to the US Open mixed doubles final alongside Casper Ruud underscores her versatility and relentless competitive spirit. With form, confidence, and hunger on her side, Swiatek is a force to be reckoned with in New York.

Can Gauff find her feet?

Gauff enters the US Open with a mix of anticipation and uncertainty. Since her triumphant French Open victory in June, where she clinched her second Grand Slam title, Gauff's performance has been inconsistent.

Notably, she suffered a surprising first-round exit at Wimbledon, followed by a Round of 16 loss at the National Bank Open. Her struggles are largely attributed to a persistent serving issue, leading to a league-leading 320 double faults this season.

In response, Gauff has made a significant coaching change just before the US Open, parting ways with Matt Daly and enlisting biomechanics expert Gavin MacMillan, who previously assisted Sabalenka in overcoming similar serve challenges.

In 2023, Gauff showcased her tenacity by rallying from a set down to defeat Sabalenka 2–6, 6–3, 6–2 in the US Open final, marking her first major singles title.

As she steps onto the courts of Flushing Meadows once again, the question remains: Can Gauff find her feet and repeat her 2023 heroics?

Time for Pegula to step up

Jessica Pegula, last year’s US Open runner-up, heads into the 2025 tournament with cautious optimism. While she claimed titles in Austin and Charleston earlier this year, her recent results have been patchy.

Early-round losses at Wimbledon and Toronto, along with a defeat to Leylah Fernandez in Washington, have cast doubts on her hard-court form.

Currently ranked No. 4, Pegula enters the US Open as a serious contender, though not the favourite. A potential clash with rising star Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals could test her resilience, making her path to another deep run anything but straightforward.

Andreeva to take a big leap?

Andreeva has established herself as a serious contender for the US Open title. At just 18, she has already reached remarkable milestones, winning two WTA 1000 titles in 2025—Dubai and Indian Wells—becoming the youngest player to do so.

Her season also features a Wimbledon quarterfinal and a French Open semifinal. Ranked No. 5, Andreeva enters Flushing Meadows with confidence and momentum.

Her aggressive baseline game, combined with strong mental fortitude, makes her a genuine threat to top players like Swiatek and Sabalenka.

Who will have the last laugh?

The US Open promises to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. While Sabalenka carries the weight of expectations as the defending champion, questions linger about whether the pressure might finally tilt the balance in favour of her rivals.

Swiatek’s resurgence, marked by recent Grand Slam and WTA 1000 victories, demonstrates she has both form and confidence to challenge at the highest level.

Gauff, despite a turbulent season and serving struggles, has shown the grit to pull off major upsets, leaving fans wondering if she can replicate her 2023 heroics.

Pegula’s inconsistent hard-court form raises doubts, yet her experience and ranking keep her in contention.

Rising star Andreeva, with two WTA 1000 titles and a victory over Sabalenka this year, adds an unpredictable edge.

Who will seize the spotlight in New York—an established star defending her crown, a returning champion, or a young talent making her breakthrough?